Click here to check out our top online bookmaker review page. Your EV calculations for the particular bet should look the following way:Īccording to this calculation, your average profit is supposed to be 0.75 betting units, assuming you continuously state 10 on the same coin toss wager. This is the example of a value bet (even though THE imaginary one). However, let’s imagine a bookmaker that offers the odds of 2.15 (23/20) for both heads and tails. Add the bookmaker margin on top of that, and your expected value should immediately turn negative. In other words, betting the coin toss at true odds is simply senseless (considering you aim to make a profit). This happens because the probability of either outcome is the same, thus, infinite tossing should end up in the results cancelling each other out (according to the big number theory). Unfortunately, in such a case our expected value would be 0 for either outcome. It is a perfect event to understand the EV better, since it has only two outcomes, and the chases of each one occurring are 50% (2.00 (1/1) in odds equivalent). The best way to demonstrate how does it work, & how to apply this formula to betting is using the coin toss. (Amount won per bet x probability of winning) - (Amount lost per bet x probability of losing) Since value is so fundamental to betting, how can one calculate? The general Expected value equation looks the following way:
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